Market Insights - March 18, 2019

March 18, 2019 Chatham Financial

Market Waits for Fed

View this week's rates.

Prior Week Summary

Despite mixed economic data and Brexit concerns, U.S. equity markets marched higher last week, rebounding from sharp declines the week prior. With a Brexit deadline scheduled for March 29th, the U.K. Parliament voted against a “no-deal” Brexit and in favor of a delay last week, setting the stage for a third, crucial vote on the Brexit proposal early this week. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May indicated that if no deal was agreed upon after the next vote, she would ask the E.U. for a lengthy extension, which requires unanimous approval by the E.U. Member States.

In economic news, inflation remained muted as consumer prices rose 1.5% year-over-year, falling below both analyst estimates and the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Updated figures on industrial production, the Empire Manufacturing survey, and producer prices all fell below consensus estimates, but durable goods orders, construction spending, consumer sentiment and retail sales numbers topped analyst estimates.

A Trump-Xi signing summit looks to be on-hold until at least April, as the two countries continue to hammer out the details of a trade deal. Investors were encouraged late in the week by reports from Chinese state media that “The two sides have further made concrete progress on the text of the trade agreement between the two sides.”

The Look Forward

Aside from Brexit developments, market participants will be awaiting updated figures on factory orders, durable goods orders, existing home sales and wholesale inventories. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to hold rates steady, as market participants are not pricing in a move in the Fed Funds target range, up or down, through the January 2020 meeting. Additionally, $48 billion of 3-month Treasury Bills, $39 billion of 6-month Treasury Bills, and $11 billion of 10-year TIPS head to auction.

 

Rates Snapshot

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., (Treasuries) Chatham Financial (Swap Curves), FHLB Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Des Moines for FHLB Advance Rates. Wells Fargo Brokered CD Indications.

 

Market Implied Policy Path (Overnight Indexed Swap Rates)

Source: Chatham Financial

 

Fixed Income Snapshot

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 


Disclosures

Chatham Hedging Advisors, LLC (CHA) is a subsidiary of Chatham Financial Corp. and provides hedge advisory, accounting and execution services related to swap transactions in the United States. CHA is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a commodity trading advisor and is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA); however, neither the CFTC nor the NFA have passed upon the merits of participating in any advisory services offered by CHA. For further information, please visit https://www.chathamfinancial.com/legal-notices/.

Transactions in over-the-counter derivatives (or “swaps”) have significant risks, including, but not limited to, substantial risk of loss. You should consult your own business, legal, tax and accounting advisers with respect to proposed swap transaction and you should refrain from entering into any swap transaction unless you have fully understood the terms and risks of the transaction, including the extent of your potential risk of loss. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Chatham Hedging Advisors and could be deemed a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. This material is not a research report prepared by Chatham Hedging Advisors. If you are not an experienced user of the derivatives markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, then you should not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. All rights reserved. 19-0081

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